Hockey


It’s time for another update to the NHL scoring race just over two months into the season.

Enough games have been played (just over one-third of the total) to make these numbers pretty realistic. The projections assume every player listed plays every game for the rest of the year and scores at the same pace they have so far.

  1. Marian Gaborik, NYR  (80 games) 67 goals, 51 assists, 118 points.
  2. Joe Thornton, SJS   (82 games) 19 goals, 90 assists, 109 points.
  3. Alex Ovechkin, WSH  (75 games) 64 goals, 43 assists, 107 points.
  4. Sidney Crosby, PIT  (82 games) 54 goals, 48 assists, 102 points.
  5. Ilya Kovalchuk, ATL   (76 games) 60 goals, 40 assists, 100 points.
  6. Corey Perry, ANA  (82 games) 41 goals, 59 assists, 100 points.
  7. Brad Richards, DAL  (80 games) 22 goals, 77 assists, 99 points.
  8. Anze Kopitar, LAK  (82 games) 40 goals, 57 assists, 97 points.
  9. Ryan Getzlaf, ANA  (82 games) 15 goals, 82 assists, 97 points.
  10. Evgeni Malkin, PIT  (75 games) 27 goals, 68 assists, 95 points.
  11. Zach Parise, NJD  (82 games) 47 goals, 47 assists, 94 points.
  12. Henrik Sedin, VAN  (82 games) 41 goals, 53 assists, 94 points.
  13. Steven Stamkos, TBL  (82 games) 52 goals, 39 assists, 91 points.
  14. Dany Heatley, SJS  (82 games) 52 goals, 38 assists, 90 points.
  15. Patrick Marleau, SJS  (82 games) 52 goals, 38 assists, 90 points.
  16. Jarome Iginla, CGY  (82 games) 52 goals, 36 assists, 88 points.
  17. Rick Nash, CBJ  (82 games) 44 goals, 44 assists, 88 points.
  18. Dustin Penner, EDM  (82 games) 44 goals, 44 assists, 88 points.
  19. Mikko Koivu, MIN  (82 games) 27 goals, 61 assists, 88 points.
  20. Rich Peverley, ATL  (82 games) 33 goals, 52 assists, 85 points.
  21. Martin St Louis, TBL  (82 games) 15 goals, 70 assists, 85 points.
  22. Nicklas Backstrom, WSH  (82 games) 21 goals, 62 assists, 83 points.
  23. Maxim Afinogenov, ATL  (82 games) 36 goals, 46 assists, 82 points.
  24. Henrik Zetterberg, DET  (82 games) 30 goals, 52 assists, 82 points.
  25. Daniel Alfredsson, OTT  (82 games) 28 goals, 54 assists, 82 points.
  26. Paul Stastny, COL  (82 games) 19 goals, 63 assists, 82 points.
  27. Tomas Kaberle, TOR  (82 games) 6 goals, 76 assists, 82 points.
  28. Alexander Semin, WSH  (73 games) 42 goals, 38 assists, 80 points.
  29. Ryan Smyth, LAK  (75 games) 31 goals, 48 assists, 79 points. **Smyth is injured so he won’t actually play 75 games.
  30. Patrick Kane, CHI  (82 games) 27 goals, 52 assists, 79 points.
  31. Vinny Prospal, NYR  (82 games) 18 goals, 61 assists, 79 points.
  32. Mike Green, WSH  (81 games) 9 goals, 69 assists, 78 points.
  33. Mike Fisher, OTT  (80 games) 40 goals, 37 assists, 77 points.
  34. Ryan Malone, TBL  (82 games) 46 goals, 30 assists, 76 points.
  35. Jeff Carter, PHI  (82 games) 30 goals, 46 assists, 76 points.
  36. Rene Bourque, CGY  (76 games) 25 goals, 51 assists, 76 points.
  37. Ales Hemsky, EDM  (76 games) 24 goals, 52 assists, 76 points. **Also injured and probably done for the year.
  38. Jamie Langenbrunner, NJD  (82 games) 19 goals, 57 assists, 76 points.
  39. Nik Antropov, ATL  (82 games) 7 goals, 69 assists, 76 points.
  40. James Neal, DAL  (78 games) 39 goals, 36 assists, 75 points.
  41. Tomas Plekanec, MTL  (82 games) 17 goals, 57 assists, 74 points.
  42. Ryan Kesler, VAN  (82 games) 15 goals, 59 assists, 74 points.
  43. Andrew Brunette, MIN  (82 games) 27 goals, 46 assists, 73 points.
  44. Kristian Huselius, CBJ  (78 games) 36 goals, 36 assists, 72 points.
  45. Mike Richards, PHI  (82 games) 36 goals, 36 assists, 72 points.
  46. Travis Zajac, NJD  (82 games) 25 goals, 47 assists, 72 points.
  47. Phil Kessel, TOR  (70 games) 47 goals, 23 assists, 70 points.
  48. Michael Cammalleri, MTL  (82 games) 42 goals, 28 assists, 70 points.
  49. Brooks Laich, WSH  (82 games) 26 goals, 44 assists, 70 points.
  50. Nathan Horton, FLA  (82 games) 23 goals, 47 assists, 70 points.

The NHL season has been going for just over a month, which is enough time to take a first peek at how the scoring race would finish if all players kept going at their current pace. Some of the projected numbers are still a little off due to the small sample of games played to date.

It’s like after the first game of the season when someone scores a hat trick. It’s fun to say “he’s on pace to finish the season with 246 goals!”, which is correct but of course not at all realistic. While the projections are a little more realistic after a month, you’ll notice the imbalance between goals and assists for some players is still extreme.

Ilya Kovalchuk, for example, has 9 goals and 1 assist. It’s extremely unlikely that he will finish the season with 9 times as many goals as assists (the greatest imbalance in my memory is Lanny McDonald with the Calgary Flames in 1982-83 when he 66 goals and 32 assists, which is just over 2 goals per assist). Martin St. Louis has 3 goals and 13 assists so far. His career record suggests he will finish with more assists than goals, but not 4.3 times as many assists as goals.

The projected point totals are more reasonable, but still a little high. That’s because players who have gotten off to fast starts will not be able to maintain that pace for the entire season. But hey, it’s still interesting…

One quick note on injured players…I haven’t projected how many games they are expected to miss, so the table assumes they play all remaining games starting tonight, November 7. So the projections for players like Kovalchuk and Malkin that are still injured and expected to miss more games are high.

  1. Anze Kopitar, LAK   (82 games) 67 goals, 67 assists, 134 points.
  2. Alex Ovechkin, WSH  (80 games) 80 goals, 51 assists, 131 points.
  3. Rick Nash, CBJ  (82 games) 55 goals, 60 assists, 115 points.
  4. Marian Gaborik, NYR  (80 games) 64 goals, 48 assists, 112 points.
  5. Rich Peverley, ATL  (82 games) 48 goals, 62 assists, 110 points.
  6. Brad Richards, DAL  (80 games) 34 goals, 74 assists, 108 points.
  7. Daniel Alfredsson, OTT  (82 games) 38 goals, 69 assists, 107 points.
  8. Corey Perry, ANA  (82 games) 59 goals, 47 assists, 106 points.
  9. Patrick Marleau, SJS  (82 games) 53 goals, 53 assists, 106 points.
  10. Tomas Kaberle, TOR  (82 games) 12 goals, 94 assists, 106 points.
  11. Ryan Smyth, LAK  (82 games) 41 goals, 62 assists, 103 points.
  12. James van Riemsdyk, PHI  (80 games) 22 goals, 80 assists, 102 points.
  13. Joe Thornton, SJS  (82 games) 19 goals, 82 assists, 101 points.
  14. Steven Stamkos, TBL  (82 games) 70 goals, 29 assists, 99 points.
  15. Ilya Kovalchuk, ATL  (78 games) 88 goals, 10 assists, 98 points.
  16. Nicklas Backstrom, WSH  (82 games) 21 goals, 77 assists, 98 points.
  17. Dustin Penner, EDM  (82 games) 46 goals, 51 assists, 97 points.
  18. Jeff Carter, PHI   (82 games) 38 goals, 57 assists, 95 points.
  19. Mike Richards, PHI  (82 games) 50 goals, 44 assists, 94 points.
  20. J.P. Dumont, NSH  (77 games) 26 goals, 68 assists, 94 points.
  21. Martin St Louis, TBL  (82 games) 18 goals, 76 assists, 94 points.
  22. Rene Bourque, CGY  (82 games) 29 goals, 64 assists, 93 points.
  23. James Neal, DAL  (81 games) 49 goals, 43 assists, 92 points.
  24. Evgeni Malkin, PIT  (78 games) 26 goals, 65 assists, 91 points.
  25. Vinny Prospal, NYR  (82 games) 19 goals, 72 assists, 91 points.
  26. Zach Parise, NJD  (82 games) 35 goals, 53 assists, 88 points.
  27. Dany Heatley, SJS  (82 games) 48 goals, 39 assists, 87 points.
  28. Ales Hemsky, EDM  (81 games) 22 goals, 65 assists, 87 points.
  29. Alexander Semin, WSH  (80 games) 40 goals, 46 assists, 86 points.
  30. Henrik Sedin, VAN  (82 games) 36 goals, 50 assists, 86 points.
  31. Justin Williams, LAK  (77 games) 28 goals, 56 assists, 84 points.
  32. Sidney Crosby, PIT  (82 games) 46 goals, 36 assists, 82 points.
  33. Mike Fisher, OTT  (82 games) 38 goals, 44 assists, 82 points.
  34. Brooks Laich, WSH  (82 games) 31 goals, 51 assists, 82 points.
  35. Patrick Kane, CHI  (82 games) 22 goals, 60 assists, 82 points.
  36. Chris Pronger, PHI  (82 games) 19 goals, 63 assists, 82 points.
  37. Ryan Getzlaf, ANA  (82 games) 6 goals, 76 assists, 82 points.
  38. Nik Antropov, ATL  (82 games) 0 goals, 82 assists, 82 points.
  39. Pavel Datsyuk, DET  (80 games) 13 goals, 67 assists, 80 points.
  40. Jason Spezza, OTT  (80 games) 7 goals, 73 assists, 80 points.
  41. Dustin Brown, LAK  (82 games) 26 goals, 51 assists, 77 points.
  42. Paul Stastny, COL  (82 games) 19 goals, 58 assists, 77 points.
  43. James Wisniewski, ANA  (77 games) 0 goals, 77 assists, 77 points.
  44. Steven Reinprecht, FLA  (82 games) 53 goals, 23 assists, 76 points.
  45. Jarome Iginla, CGY  (82 games) 41 goals, 35 assists, 76 points.
  46. Travis Zajac, NJD  (82 games) 35 goals, 41 assists, 76 points.
  47. Henrik Zetterberg, DET  (82 games) 23 goals, 53 assists, 76 points.
  48. Matt Carle, PHI  (82 games) 13 goals, 63 assists, 76 points.
  49. Tim Connolly, BUF  (82 games) 25 goals, 50 assists, 75 points.
  50. Marc Savard, BOS  (74 games) 42 goals, 32 assists, 74 points.