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Through games of January 1, this is how the top 50 NHL scoring race looks. But first, here is my take on the NHL awards right now:

  • Hart Trophy (Most Valuable Player) – Alexander Ovechkin, WSH (runners-up are Joe Thornton, SJ and Henrik Sedin, VAN) – I think the runner-up spots are totally wide-open, but Ovechkin clearly stands on top
  • Calder Trophy (Rookie of the Year) – Tyler Myers, BUF (runners-up are John Tavares, NYI and Matt Duchene, CDO)
  • Vezina Trophy (Best Goaltender) – Ryan Miller, BUF (runner-ups are Martin Brodeur, NJ and Ilya Bryzgalov, PHX) – this race is really close
  • Norris Trophy (Best Defenseman) – Duncan Keith, CHI (runner-up is Mike Green, WSH) – another really wide-open race

and based on my projected stats below:

  • Art Ross Trophy (Scoring Champion) – Alexander Ovechkin, WSH (runners-up are Joe Thornton, SJ and Marian Gaborik, NYR)
  • Rocket Richard Trophy (Goal-scoring Champion) – Alexander Ovechkin, WSH (runners-up are Marian Gaborik, NYR and Ilya Kovalchuk, ATL)
  • Wayne Gretzky Trophy (unofficial assist champ) – Joe Thornton, SJ (runners-up are Brad Richards, DAL and Martin St. Louis, TB)

The projected top 50:

  1. Alex Ovechkin, WSH (74 games) 60 goals, 56 assists, 116 points.
  2. Joe Thornton, SJS (82 games) 22 goals, 88 assists, 110 points.
  3. Marian Gaborik, NYR (80 games) 55 goals, 53 assists, 108 points.
  4. Henrik Sedin, VAN (82 games) 38 goals, 68 assists, 106 points.
  5. Brad Richards, DAL (80 games) 23 goals, 76 assists, 99 points.
  6. Sidney Crosby, PIT (81 games) 47 goals, 51 assists, 98 points.
  7. Ilya Kovalchuk, ATL (76 games) 54 goals, 42 assists, 96 points.
  8. Nicklas Backstrom, WSH (82 games) 31 goals, 64 assists, 95 points.
  9. Patrick Kane, CHI (82 games) 35 goals, 57 assists, 92 points.
  10. Dany Heatley, SJS (82 games) 46 goals, 44 assists, 90 points.
  11. Martin St Louis, TBL (82 games) 16 goals, 74 assists, 90 points.
  12. Zach Parise, NJD (82 games) 36 goals, 53 assists, 89 points.
  13. Tomas Plekanec, MTL (82 games) 19 goals, 69 assists, 88 points.
  14. Ryan Getzlaf, ANA (80 games) 21 goals, 65 assists, 86 points.
  15. Corey Perry, ANA (82 games) 33 goals, 51 assists, 84 points.
  16. Evgeni Malkin, PIT (75 games) 29 goals, 55 assists, 84 points.
  17. Patrick Marleau, SJS (82 games) 50 goals, 32 assists, 82 points.
  18. Daniel Sedin, VAN (64 games) 28 goals, 53 assists, 81 points.
  19. Loui Eriksson, DAL (82 games) 33 goals, 47 assists, 80 points.
  20. Mike Green, WSH (81 games) 19 goals, 60 assists, 79 points.
  21. Jarome Iginla, CGY (82 games) 41 goals, 37 assists, 78 points.
  22. Anze Kopitar, LAK (82 games) 32 goals, 46 assists, 78 points.
  23. Nathan Horton, FLA (82 games) 28 goals, 50 assists, 78 points.
  24. Mikko Koivu, MIN (82 games) 20 goals, 58 assists, 78 points.
  25. Paul Stastny, COL (82 games) 18 goals, 59 assists, 77 points.
  26. Steven Stamkos, TBL (82 games) 43 goals, 33 assists, 76 points.
  27. Dustin Penner, EDM (82 games) 38 goals, 38 assists, 76 points.
  28. Stephen Weiss, FLA (82 games) 36 goals, 40 assists, 76 points.
  29. Rene Bourque, CGY (76 games) 31 goals, 45 assists, 76 points.
  30. Alexander Semin, WSH (73 games) 33 goals, 42 assists, 75 points.
  31. Vincent Lecavalier, TBL (82 games) 18 goals, 57 assists, 75 points.
  32. James Neal, DAL (78 games) 39 goals, 35 assists, 74 points.
  33. Wojtek Wolski, COL (82 games) 29 goals, 45 assists, 74 points.
  34. Jonathan Toews, CHI (76 games) 27 goals, 47 assists, 74 points.
  35. Ryan Malone, TBL (82 games) 39 goals, 33 assists, 72 points.
  36. Rick Nash, CBJ (82 games) 37 goals, 35 assists, 72 points.
  37. Maxim Afinogenov, ATL (82 games) 27 goals, 45 assists, 72 points.
  38. Nik Antropov, ATL (82 games) 21 goals, 51 assists, 72 points.
  39. Henrik Zetterberg, DET (76 games) 22 goals, 49 assists, 71 points.
  40. Duncan Keith, CHI (82 games) 12 goals, 59 assists, 71 points.
  41. Bobby Ryan, ANA (82 games) 39 goals, 31 assists, 70 points.
  42. Michael Cammalleri, MTL (82 games) 38 goals, 32 assists, 70 points.
  43. Rich Peverley, ATL (82 games) 25 goals, 45 assists, 70 points.
  44. Tomas Kaberle, TOR (82 games) 6 goals, 64 assists, 70 points.
  45. Mike Richards, PHI (82 games) 33 goals, 35 assists, 68 points.
  46. Jeff Carter, PHI (82 games) 29 goals, 39 assists, 68 points.
  47. Andrew Brunette, MIN (82 games) 24 goals, 44 assists, 68 points.
  48. Mike Ribeiro, DAL (82 games) 21 goals, 47 assists, 68 points.
  49. Ryan Kesler, VAN (82 games) 20 goals, 48 assists, 68 points.
  50. Vinny Prospal, NYR (80 games) 17 goals, 51 assists, 68 points
Alex Ovechkin, WSH (74 games) 60 goals, 56 assists, 116 points.
Joe Thornton, SJS (82 games) 22 goals, 88 assists, 110 points.
Marian Gaborik, NYR (80 games) 55 goals, 53 assists, 108 points.
Henrik Sedin, VAN (82 games) 38 goals, 68 assists, 106 points.
Brad Richards, DAL (80 games) 23 goals, 76 assists, 99 points.
Sidney Crosby, PIT (81 games) 47 goals, 51 assists, 98 points.
Ilya Kovalchuk, ATL (76 games) 54 goals, 42 assists, 96 points.
Nicklas Backstrom, WSH (82 games) 31 goals, 64 assists, 95 points.
Patrick Kane, CHI (82 games) 35 goals, 57 assists, 92 points.
Dany Heatley, SJS (82 games) 46 goals, 44 assists, 90 points.
Martin St Louis, TBL (82 games) 16 goals, 74 assists, 90 points.
Zach Parise, NJD (82 games) 36 goals, 53 assists, 89 points.
Tomas Plekanec, MTL (82 games) 19 goals, 69 assists, 88 points.
Ryan Getzlaf, ANA (80 games) 21 goals, 65 assists, 86 points.
Corey Perry, ANA (82 games) 33 goals, 51 assists, 84 points.
Evgeni Malkin, PIT (75 games) 29 goals, 55 assists, 84 points.
Patrick Marleau, SJS (82 games) 50 goals, 32 assists, 82 points.
Daniel Sedin, VAN (64 games) 28 goals, 53 assists, 81 points.
Loui Eriksson, DAL (82 games) 33 goals, 47 assists, 80 points.
Mike Green, WSH (81 games) 19 goals, 60 assists, 79 points.
Jarome Iginla, CGY (82 games) 41 goals, 37 assists, 78 points.
Anze Kopitar, LAK (82 games) 32 goals, 46 assists, 78 points.
Nathan Horton, FLA (82 games) 28 goals, 50 assists, 78 points.
Mikko Koivu, MIN (82 games) 20 goals, 58 assists, 78 points.
Paul Stastny, COL (82 games) 18 goals, 59 assists, 77 points.
Steven Stamkos, TBL (82 games) 43 goals, 33 assists, 76 points.
Dustin Penner, EDM (82 games) 38 goals, 38 assists, 76 points.
Stephen Weiss, FLA (82 games) 36 goals, 40 assists, 76 points.
Rene Bourque, CGY (76 games) 31 goals, 45 assists, 76 points.
Alexander Semin, WSH (73 games) 33 goals, 42 assists, 75 points.
Vincent Lecavalier, TBL (82 games) 18 goals, 57 assists, 75 points.
James Neal, DAL (78 games) 39 goals, 35 assists, 74 points.
Wojtek Wolski, COL (82 games) 29 goals, 45 assists, 74 points.
Jonathan Toews, CHI (76 games) 27 goals, 47 assists, 74 points.
Ryan Malone, TBL (82 games) 39 goals, 33 assists, 72 points.
Rick Nash, CBJ (82 games) 37 goals, 35 assists, 72 points.
Maxim Afinogenov, ATL (82 games) 27 goals, 45 assists, 72 points.
Nik Antropov, ATL (82 games) 21 goals, 51 assists, 72 points.
Henrik Zetterberg, DET (76 games) 22 goals, 49 assists, 71 points.
Duncan Keith, CHI (82 games) 12 goals, 59 assists, 71 points.
Bobby Ryan, ANA (82 games) 39 goals, 31 assists, 70 points.
Michael Cammalleri, MTL (82 games) 38 goals, 32 assists, 70 points.
Rich Peverley, ATL (82 games) 25 goals, 45 assists, 70 points.
Tomas Kaberle, TOR (82 games) 6 goals, 64 assists, 70 points.
Mike Richards, PHI (82 games) 33 goals, 35 assists, 68 points.
Jeff Carter, PHI (82 games) 29 goals, 39 assists, 68 points.
Andrew Brunette, MIN (82 games) 24 goals, 44 assists, 68 points.
Mike Ribeiro, DAL (82 games) 21 goals, 47 assists, 68 points.
Ryan Kesler, VAN (82 games) 20 goals, 48 assists, 68 points.
Vinny Prospal, NYR (80 games) 17 goals, 51 assists, 68 points.
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It’s time for another update to the NHL scoring race just over two months into the season.

Enough games have been played (just over one-third of the total) to make these numbers pretty realistic. The projections assume every player listed plays every game for the rest of the year and scores at the same pace they have so far.

  1. Marian Gaborik, NYR  (80 games) 67 goals, 51 assists, 118 points.
  2. Joe Thornton, SJS   (82 games) 19 goals, 90 assists, 109 points.
  3. Alex Ovechkin, WSH  (75 games) 64 goals, 43 assists, 107 points.
  4. Sidney Crosby, PIT  (82 games) 54 goals, 48 assists, 102 points.
  5. Ilya Kovalchuk, ATL   (76 games) 60 goals, 40 assists, 100 points.
  6. Corey Perry, ANA  (82 games) 41 goals, 59 assists, 100 points.
  7. Brad Richards, DAL  (80 games) 22 goals, 77 assists, 99 points.
  8. Anze Kopitar, LAK  (82 games) 40 goals, 57 assists, 97 points.
  9. Ryan Getzlaf, ANA  (82 games) 15 goals, 82 assists, 97 points.
  10. Evgeni Malkin, PIT  (75 games) 27 goals, 68 assists, 95 points.
  11. Zach Parise, NJD  (82 games) 47 goals, 47 assists, 94 points.
  12. Henrik Sedin, VAN  (82 games) 41 goals, 53 assists, 94 points.
  13. Steven Stamkos, TBL  (82 games) 52 goals, 39 assists, 91 points.
  14. Dany Heatley, SJS  (82 games) 52 goals, 38 assists, 90 points.
  15. Patrick Marleau, SJS  (82 games) 52 goals, 38 assists, 90 points.
  16. Jarome Iginla, CGY  (82 games) 52 goals, 36 assists, 88 points.
  17. Rick Nash, CBJ  (82 games) 44 goals, 44 assists, 88 points.
  18. Dustin Penner, EDM  (82 games) 44 goals, 44 assists, 88 points.
  19. Mikko Koivu, MIN  (82 games) 27 goals, 61 assists, 88 points.
  20. Rich Peverley, ATL  (82 games) 33 goals, 52 assists, 85 points.
  21. Martin St Louis, TBL  (82 games) 15 goals, 70 assists, 85 points.
  22. Nicklas Backstrom, WSH  (82 games) 21 goals, 62 assists, 83 points.
  23. Maxim Afinogenov, ATL  (82 games) 36 goals, 46 assists, 82 points.
  24. Henrik Zetterberg, DET  (82 games) 30 goals, 52 assists, 82 points.
  25. Daniel Alfredsson, OTT  (82 games) 28 goals, 54 assists, 82 points.
  26. Paul Stastny, COL  (82 games) 19 goals, 63 assists, 82 points.
  27. Tomas Kaberle, TOR  (82 games) 6 goals, 76 assists, 82 points.
  28. Alexander Semin, WSH  (73 games) 42 goals, 38 assists, 80 points.
  29. Ryan Smyth, LAK  (75 games) 31 goals, 48 assists, 79 points. **Smyth is injured so he won’t actually play 75 games.
  30. Patrick Kane, CHI  (82 games) 27 goals, 52 assists, 79 points.
  31. Vinny Prospal, NYR  (82 games) 18 goals, 61 assists, 79 points.
  32. Mike Green, WSH  (81 games) 9 goals, 69 assists, 78 points.
  33. Mike Fisher, OTT  (80 games) 40 goals, 37 assists, 77 points.
  34. Ryan Malone, TBL  (82 games) 46 goals, 30 assists, 76 points.
  35. Jeff Carter, PHI  (82 games) 30 goals, 46 assists, 76 points.
  36. Rene Bourque, CGY  (76 games) 25 goals, 51 assists, 76 points.
  37. Ales Hemsky, EDM  (76 games) 24 goals, 52 assists, 76 points. **Also injured and probably done for the year.
  38. Jamie Langenbrunner, NJD  (82 games) 19 goals, 57 assists, 76 points.
  39. Nik Antropov, ATL  (82 games) 7 goals, 69 assists, 76 points.
  40. James Neal, DAL  (78 games) 39 goals, 36 assists, 75 points.
  41. Tomas Plekanec, MTL  (82 games) 17 goals, 57 assists, 74 points.
  42. Ryan Kesler, VAN  (82 games) 15 goals, 59 assists, 74 points.
  43. Andrew Brunette, MIN  (82 games) 27 goals, 46 assists, 73 points.
  44. Kristian Huselius, CBJ  (78 games) 36 goals, 36 assists, 72 points.
  45. Mike Richards, PHI  (82 games) 36 goals, 36 assists, 72 points.
  46. Travis Zajac, NJD  (82 games) 25 goals, 47 assists, 72 points.
  47. Phil Kessel, TOR  (70 games) 47 goals, 23 assists, 70 points.
  48. Michael Cammalleri, MTL  (82 games) 42 goals, 28 assists, 70 points.
  49. Brooks Laich, WSH  (82 games) 26 goals, 44 assists, 70 points.
  50. Nathan Horton, FLA  (82 games) 23 goals, 47 assists, 70 points.

Here are the latest rankings, thru Sept. 23. And despite some members of the media who apparently won’t vote for Greinke if he has fewer than 16 wins, I don’t think there’s much debate about this anymore. Might be far more interesting to see who finishes second.

  1. Zack Greinke, Royals 156 points
  2. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays 139 points
  3. Felix Hernandez, Mariners 138 points
  4. CC Sabathia, Yankees 134 points
  5. Justin Verlander, Tigers 115 points
  6. Josh Beckett, Red Sox 83 points
  7. Jon Lester, Red Sox 64 points
  8. Scott Feldman, Rangers 59 points
  9. Edwin Jackson, Tigers 55 points
  10. Jered Weaver, Angels 53 points

Biggest event of the last few days was Zack Greinke’s 15-strikeout performance against the Indians. Perhaps even more importantly for him was he got his 12th win. Wins have been very tough to come by for Greinke in the last few months, but it seems pretty clear if he can maintain his level of performance and win 5 or 6 more games, the Cy Young is his to lose. Here are the standings through games on Thursday, August 27. (The ranking system is explained in this post – it only considers starting pitchers, not relievers).

1. Zack Greinke, Royals 145 points

2. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays 132 points

3. Justin Verlander, Tigers 128 points

4. CC Sabathia, Yankees 114 points

5. Felix Hernandez, Mariners 110 points

6. Josh Beckett, Red Sox 88.5 points

7. Edwin Jackson, Tigers 59 points

8. Jered Weaver, Angels 57.5 points

9. Jarrod Washburn, Tigers/Mariners 42 points

10. Jon Lester, Red Sox 37 points

Here are my updated AL Cy Young rankings for starting pitchers after Roy Halladay got lit up by the Rays last night. His ERA jumped from 2.78 to 3.03 (2nd in the league to 4th). That caused him to drop out of the Cy Young lead behind Zack Greinke.

Justin Verlander also wasn’t great, but he got the win over the Angels to help his cause. He continues to have a healthy lead in strikeouts, and moves up from 4th to 3rd in the Cy Young rankings, right behind Halladay.

1.  Zack Greinke, Royals 134 points

2. Roy Halladay, Blue Jays 132 points

3. Justin Verlander, Tigers 131 points

4. Felix Hernandez, Mariners 116 points

5. CC Sabathia, Yankees, 102 points

6. Josh Beckett, Red Sox 91.5 points

7. Jered Weaver, Angels 66.5 points

8. Edwin Jackson, Tigers 56 points

9. Jarrod Washburn, Tigers/Mariners 42 points

10. Jon Lester, Red Sox 37 points

Mats Sundin, after 35 games with the Canucks, has 9 goals and 16 assists for 25 points.

Over a full season, that translates to 21 goals and 37 assists for 58 points. The 21 goals would be the lowest total of his entire career, and the 58 points would be his lowest total other than the shortened 1995 lockout season.

So returns are not great, but perhaps his presence is part of the reason the Sedin twins have been on fire lately. And I guess all that really matters is what happens in the playoffs.

Comments on this study have been moved to here.

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